Environmental Geography

The Incoherent Concept of the Subtropics

The previous GeoCurrents post harshly criticized several climate maps for extending the subtropical zones too far toward the poles. But after doing a little casual research, I was chagrined to discover that these maps largely fit the formal, or “geographical,” definition of the term. The Wikipedia article on the subtropics states that “they cover the middle latitudes from 23°26′09.3 to approximately 35° to 40° north and south.” Both ChatGPT and Grok give the same figures. But in the United States, the subtropics are seldom if ever imagined in such terms. The idea that Chattanooga, Tennessee (35°N) is subtropical, let alone Columbus, Ohio (40°N), would strike most Americans as absurd. It is also noteworthy that very few maps that purport to depict the subtropics follow this latitudinal definition – and for good reason.

Problematic Latitudinal Definition of the Subtropics in the United States

The main reason why the common conception of the subtropics does not match the formal definition is because the former is based on climate and climatic zones do not rigidly follow latitudinal belts. As can be seen below, the Wikipedia map of subtropical climates strays far from the lines of latitude that supposedly bound them. Although the Wikipedia article on the subtropics does not specify that the latitude-based definition of the term is quite different from the climatological definition, both ChatGPT and Grok do so.  As a result, they give a better sense of what the term actually means.

Wikipedia Map of the Subtropics

But even if we limit ourselves to the climatological subtropics, conceptual problems remain. To begin with, the definition of the term varies significantly from source to source. Such definitions, moreover, are often too vague to be useful. ChatGPT, for example, tells me that “Some meteorological sources define the subtropics as the region where [the] mean annual temperature is above 18°C (64°F) [and] winters are not cold enough for snow to be reliable,” but as this definition also includes the tropics. ChatGPT further claims that subtropical summers are hot, but that is not the case in many west-coast locations. In Walvis Bay, Namibia, which at 22°57’ is just north of the Tropic of Capricorn, not a single month has a mean daily maximum temperature above 68.5° F (20.3° C). Grok’s climatological definition of the subtropics, in contrast, is precise and seemingly scientific: “Regions where the average temperature of the coldest month is between 0–18 °C (32–64 °F) and the average temperature of the warmest month is above 22 °C (72 °F), following modified Köppen climate classification criteria.” But the “0–18 °C (32–64 °F)” coldest-month range is how the Köppen system defines temperate climates, not subtropical ones.

Walvis Bay Climate

The Wikipedia article on the subtropics rests on more solid climatological grounds. It follows the Trewartha climate classification system in defining a subtropical climate as one “that has at least eight months with a mean temperature greater than 10 °C (50.0 °F) and at least one month with a mean temperature under 18 °C (64.4 °F).” The main problem with this definition is that it fails to exclude areas with short but chilly winters that have regular bouts of extreme cold – conditions that few people would regard as “subtropical.” Chattanooga, Tennessee, for example, easily slots into Trewartha’s humid subtropical zone, but its mean monthly minimum temperature in January is a frosty 15.9° F (-9.5° C) and its record low is a frigid -10° F (-23° C).

Chattanooga Climate

Another way to define the subtropics is by the geographical ranges of certain perennial plants, generally those that require a long period of relatively warm weather but can tolerate cool winters with occasional light frost. The Wikipedia article, for example, tells us that “These [subtropical] climates do not routinely see hard freezes or snow due to winter on average being above freezing, which allows plants such as palms and citrus to flourish.” By this criterion, my own home on the Stanford campus near Palo Alto, California (37° N), is definitely subtropical. But I doubt that anyone who grew up in the area would regard it as such. Most local people whom I queried seemed puzzled that I would even ask such a silly question. Several of them replied that Hawaii is the quintessential subtropical location. Actually, Hawaii is fully tropical (the northernmost point on Kauai is at 22°13′ N latitude).

My own personal definition of the subtropics is keyed to a more comprehensive botanical list found in the same Wikipedia article: “plants such as palms, citrus, mango, pistachio, leechee, and avocado are grown in the subtropics.” Avocado trees cannot be successfully cultivated in Palo Alto, as they succumb to periodic frosts (Palo Alto’s mean annual minimum temperature is 28.1° F [-2.2° C]). When driving south, I can only start to imagine that I have entered the subtropics when I have rounded Point Conception and see the avocado orchards of southern California. Santa Barbara’s mean annual minimum temperature is 36.6° F (2.3° C) and frost-sensitive plants abound. But good luck with mangos and leechees.*

I do think that the “subtropics” is an indispensable geographical category. But it is necessary to clearly distinguish the “latitudinal subtropics” from the “climatological subtropics.” I also think that it is essential to consider regularly occurring extremely low temperatures when defining the subtropics on climatic grounds. These topics will be considered in greater length in coming GeoCurrents posts.

* As the map posted below shows, avocado orchards are found north of Point Conception in San Luis Obispo County, but I have never seen them.

**ChatGPT tells me that “You can grow mango trees in Santa Barbara if you have a warm microclimate and are willing to protect the tree during cold spells. They are not guaranteed producers…” It essentially gives the same answer for leechees.

Avocado Cultivation in California, Map

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Avoiding Misinformation When Teaching the Geography of Climate, Part 1

As earlier GeoCurrents posts in the current series on educational geography have noted, sun angles, which are determined by latitude, play a huge role in shaping the geography of climate. Simply put, the lower the latitude of any given location, the more solar radiation it will receive and the warmer it will be. Historically, latitude has been considered the prime determinant of climate. It often still is.

The actual situation, however, is far more complicated. Climate is not just a matter of average temperatures, nor are average temperatures just a matter of latitude. Even equatorial locations can have cool climates if they sit at high elevations; Quito, Ecuador, at 0° latitude and an altitude of 9,350 ft (2,850 m), has a mild annual daily mean temperature of 60.1° F (15.6° C). And even tropical lowland areas can have seemingly non-tropical climates. Consider, for example, the coastal city of Lima, Peru, which, at 12° S, is well within the tropics. Yet in December, a month with high sun angles, Lima’s mean daily maximum temperature is only 74.9° F (24.4° C), and in August it is only 66.6° F (19.2° C). Unlike most tropical locations, moreover, Lima receives very little rainfall and has nothing that even approaches a rainy season. In August, the city’s “wettest” month, average precipitation is a meager 0.06 inches (1.5 mm). But despite its extreme aridity, with only 0.25 inches (6.4 mm) of rain annually, Lima remains humid throughout the year. In its driest months (December-January), the average relative humidity is 81%.

Climate Table of Quito, Ecuador

Climate Table for Lima, Peru

Lima owes its mild temperatures, lack of precipitation, and humid air to the cold Humboldt Current that courses off its coast. Besides latitude, altitude and proximity to ocean currents are thus key influences on the geography of climate. But they are still not the only ones. Other important considerations include location relative to mountain ranges and prevailing winds, and position within continental landmasses (coastal vs. interior and west coast vs. east coast). These factors will be explored in later posts. For now, I will remain focused on the understandable but simplistic notion that latitude alone determines climate.

Equating climate with latitude with goes back to the ancient Greeks, whose geographical knowledge was largely restricted to the greater Mediterranean world. The term “climate” derives from the Greek term klima, which originally meant “inclination” or “slope.” Greek geographers divided the world into distinct bands called “the climes,” which were strictly defined by latitude, which in turn was defined by the seasonally changing inclination of the sun. In their simpler five-clime model*, used by Aristotle and others, a hot “torrid zone” extended from the Tropic of Cancer to the Tropic of Capricorn. On either side of this tropical (or equatorial) swath lay two temperate belts, which extended to the Arctic and Antarctic circles. Beyond the circles were the frigid, or arctic and Antarctic, zones. Most ancient Greek geographers agreed that only the temperate zone was inhabitable, as the torrid zone was too hot for human habitation and the arctic zone too cold. The existence of the vast torrid zone meant that the ecumene (or oikoumene), the inhabited temperate portion of the world, was isolated from any possible human societies living in the southern temperate belt.

Aristotle’s Global Climate Model

Ancient Greek climatic ideas were highly influential in ancient and medieval Europe, discouraging ventures into far northern and far southern lands. Eventually, however, the weight of empirical evidence crushed the authority of the classical texts. As Margaret Small explains in her 2020 book Framing the World: Classical Influence on Sixteenth-Century Geographical Thought:

[This] chapter first examines how and why the Greeks and Romans developed the concept of uninhabitable frigid and torrid regions denoting the limits of the oikoumene [ecumene]. In the process it demonstrates why these climatic limits became conceptual margins that hindered exploration for nearly two thousand years. It looks at the reevaluation of authority which still saw the Greeks and Romans as the arbiters of knowledge, but enabled non-canonical classical authors to become important in revising attitudes to the climatic zones which had once been thought to define the edges of the oikoumene. In the new geography, the arctic and equatorial regions were believed to play key roles in allowing the different parts of the world to interact with one another. Without this shift in mind-set about the frigid and torrid zones, it would have been impossible for Europeans to begin to think of the world as a single, exploitable, global unit, created by God for human dominion.

Margaret Small, Framing the World

The actual contours of global climate were gradually revealed during and after the sixteenth century, and the process was nearly completed with the pioneering research of geographer Alexander von Humboldt (1769-1869). Unfortunately, however, the original latitude-focused model never disappeared in pedagogical circles. In preparing this post, I was surprised to find many educational climate maps that are not merely outdated but are filled with misinformation. Several of these maps will be examined in the next post.

*  Ptolemy used additional lines of latitude to delineate seven climes, based on periods of daylight on the summer solstice. This scheme gained considerable importance in medieval Europe and in the Islamic realm.

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Why the Cardinal Directions Are Often Misperceived at Stanford University

People vary greatly in their ability to orient themselves by the cardinal direction. But even those with a good sense of direction tend to get confused in certain places. In my experience, Stanford University is a particularly bad place for direction perception. I never use cardinal directions when describing locations or giving directions on campus, as doing so tends to generate confusion.

Several factors contribute to these difficulties in direction perception on the Stanford campus. The problem begins with the general northwest/southeast orientation of local landforms, which is often perceived to run instead from north to south (see the previous post). As a result, most* people in Stanford are surprised to learn that the east bay city of Berkeley, home of the main rival school, is located to the west of Palo Alto, which is on the west side of the San Francisco Bay. The eastward swing in this topographic orientation as one moves to the south exacerbates the problem. Consider, for example, the two freeways, U.S. Route 101 and Interstate 280, that run between San Francisco and San Jose, providing access to Stanford and the nearby town of Palo Alto. The general southward directions of these roads veer well to the east in several locations. Between Cupertino and San Jose, Interstate 280 essentially runs east/west. But as is difficult to make mental adjustments as directions shifts, many people perceive these highways as retaining their north/south orientations.

Stanford Is East of Berkeley

This same issue characterizes the Santa Cruz Mountains, located between the southern Bay Area and the Pacific Ocean. Near Stanford, the range is oriented from northwest to southeast. If one could drive directly west from the campus, one would cross the mountains and soon reach the coast. But to the south, both the Santa Cruz Range and the coastline swing to the east. As this change tends to escape perception, the city of Santa Cruz is usually thought to be southwest of Stanford, although it is actually located to the southeast.

Santa Cruz Is East of Stanford

Local road angles contribute to the directional confusion. Most visitors to the campus take Palm Drive, which begins at the storied road called El Camino Real (“the King’s Highway”). Palm Drive is often perceived as perpendicular El Camino, but actually intersects it at a 57° degree angle. Because northwest/southeast oriented El Camino is commonly regarded as running north to south, Palm Drive, perceptually perpendicular to it, is often regarded as running from east to west. But as can be seen on the map posted below, when one enters the Stanford campus on this palm-lined street, one is actually heading slightly to the south of south-southwest. Stanford’s central campus maintains this same orientation. Jane Stanford Way, perpendicular to Palm Drive, thus runs in a mostly east/west directions. Builings on it, such as Encina West Hall, are named accordingly. In my experience, however, many people find this name confusing, as they tend to think of Encina West Hall as being located to the north of Encina Hall proper.

Directional Confusion at Stanford University

West Confused with North at Stanford University

* These arguments are based  merely on anecdote and personal experience and would have to be supported by survey data to have solid grounding.

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Wolves in the Gaza Strip? The Geography of the Coyote-Like Arabian Wolf

The gray wolf is usually seen as a wilderness species, an animal that needs vast expanses of habitat far from human concentrations, as well as sizable populations of large herbivores to prey upon. Yet many distribution maps, including one featured in the Wikipedia article on the species, shows gray wolves currently inhabiting some densely populated places. In the eastern Mediterranean region, for example, wolves are depicted as living in southern Lebanon, northern Israel, the West Bank, northwestern Jordan, and southwestern Syria (see the paired maps posted below).  Other distribution maps show the gray wolf’s range as currently extending across the entire Arabian Peninsula, including the hyper-arid Rub’ al Khali, a large region of shifting sand dunes with little water and scant wildlife (see the second set of maps below).

Wolf Distribution and Human Population in the Eastern Mediterranean Region map

ScreenshotExaggerated Maps of the Range of the Gray Wolf

Such maps do not fit the common perception of wolf habitat and may therefore seem fraudulent. But although these maps exaggerate the range of the gray wolf, they also convey an element of truth that confounds expectations. The solution to this seeming paradox is found in the different habitat requirements of different wolf subspecies. The Arabian gray wolf (Canis lupus arabs) that inhabits some parts of the Arabian Peninsula is the smallest subspecies, weighing on average only 45 pounds (20.4 kg). In contrast, wolves in the American northwest generally weigh between 99 and 159 pounds (36 to 72 kg). Arabian wolves are thus closer in size to coyotes, which typically between 15 and 45 pounds (7 to 20 kg) and have reached 75 pounds (34 kg). Arabian wolves are also similar to coyotes in diet and social structure, typically hunting in pairs rather than in packs. As noted in the Wikipedia article on the animal:

Arabian wolves are mainly carnivorous, but also omnivorous and in some areas largely dependent on human garbage and excess products. Their native prey includes ungulates … as well as smaller animals like hares, rodents, small birds, and reptiles. They also eat cats, sweet fruits, roadkill, and other carrion. Opportunistically, almost any small animal including fish, snails, and baby baboons can be part of their diet.

The reasonably accurate distribution map of the Arabian wolf found in the same article shows that its remaining populations are concentrated in the southern Arabian Peninsula, sandwiched between the more densely populated coastal areas and the more arid interior. Populations are also found in southern Israel, Jordan, and the southern Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. Numbers are relatively small, however, with Saudi Arabia supporting roughly 250-700 wolves, Jordan some 200, and Israel around 100 to 150. The Arabian wolf population of Israel is reportedly stable, while that of Jordan is said to be decreasing due to hunting pressure.

Current Range of the Arabian Wolf Map

Remarkably, Arabian wolves also inhabit, or did until the current war, the densely populated Gaza Strip. A recent article on the wolves of Gaza outlines the situation as of 2023:

According to old Gazans, the Arabian Wolf was present in the Gaza Strip 7-8 decades ago, and after that its numbers decreased to zero. After the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the uprooting of its settlements in late 2005, dozens of Arabian Wolf and other carnivores crept intermittently through gaps in the border to the east of the Gaza Strip. The Arabian Wolf often arrives at night, looking for food, and it returns again in the morning hours to the Gaza Envelope. Many individuals have been captured or killed by Gazans at night using live traps “Maltash“, leghold traps “Fakh“, or even rifles and cartridges. Some healthy specimens have been sold and kept in cages at local zoos. Many plausible factors encouraged the infiltration of Arabian Wolves and other canids into the eastern Gaza Strip, such as the abundance of wildlife prey attracted by solid waste dumps, sewage treatment plants, and agricultural production activities of various crops, in addition to the abundance of animal pens and poultry farms.

The wolves of northern Israel, Lebanon, and Syria are of a different subspecies, the endangered Indian wolf (Canis lupus pallipes). Indian wolves are intermediate in size between the Arabian wolf and the wolves of northern Eurasia and North America. Up to 7,000 Indian wolves inhabit the mountainous areas of eastern Turkey, but populations are smaller and more precarious in the eastern Mediterranean. According to the Wikipedia article on the subspecies, 80-100 Indian wolves live in the Golan Heights, where they are “well protected by the military activities there.” The same article also reports that “Israel’s conservation policies and effective law enforcement maintain a moderately sized wolf population, which radiates into neighbouring countries.”

Range of the Indian Wolf Map

It might seem odd to see military activities described protecting wildlife. Armed conflict is indeed associated with “detrimental effects on wildlife habitat and populations.” But the situation in the Golan Heights is not unprecedented. Korea’s so-called Demilitarized Zone, surrounded by heavy fortifications and littered with landmines, has become nothing less than an “accidental wildlife paradise.”

 

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Mapping the Return of the Gray Wolf to California

One of the most surprising aspects of the recovery of the gray wolf in the United States is the return of the species to California. Wolves had been eliminated from the state in the 1920s and were not expected to return any soon time, if at all. But in 2011, a single wolf made the arduous journey from northeastern Oregon to northeastern California, remarkably tracked by wildlife officials (see the map posted below). Other wolves followed, and before long several breeding packs had been established. California’s Department of Fish and Wildlife recently announced that in 2024 “a minimum of 30 pups born across five or six packs and that’s the largest annual litter count we’ve had thus far in the state.” Although most California wolves are found in the state’s northeastern reaches, in 2023 a new pack was confirmed in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range some 200 miles to the south.

Return of Gray Wolves to California map

Gray Wolf Distribution in California 2024 map

The first map in this post also shows potential wolf habitat the United States (excluding Alaska), as well as the approximate range of wolves at roughly the time when California was reinhabited. Although it is not surprising that many areas marked as habitat are still without wolves, it is perplexing that wolves are depicted as living in areas outside their supposed habitat zone. Determining what constitutes “wolf habitat” is a difficult task, but I still do not think that the cartographer has done a good job on this map. The small dots of “habitat” scattered across Nevada, Utah, and Idaho are especially suspicious, as these areas are too small to support viable packs. I suspect that a much larger portion of the U.S. is potential wolf habitat, at least to the extent that people would allow wolves to repopulate it.

Even mapping the historic range of the grey wolf in the United States is a difficult and contentious issue. As can be seen in the figure posted below, different maps show very different distribution patterns. Most uncertain is the historical range of the gray wolves in the eastern United States. Much of the uncertainty here stems from the presence of a closely related but smaller species, the red wolf. But it is not even clear whether this critically endangered animal is a separate species or merely a gray-wolf subspecies. Red wolves have, moreover, hybridized extensively with coyotes in recent decades, adding to the general taxonomic and distributional confusion.

Historic Range of the Gray Wolf in North America maps

Historic Range of the Red Wolf

Another striking aspect of the historic distribution of the gray wolf depicted on these maps is the absence of the animal from central and western California (except the German-language map produced by the World Wildlife Fund). The reported lack of wolves here is curious, as California’s vast Central Valley and surrounding foothills had roughly 500,000 tule elk circa 1800, which could have supported a large wolf population. It seems most likely that the conventional mapping of the historic distribution of the gray wolf in California is simply incorrect. At any rate, the chatbots that I consulted all agreed that grey wolves were historically found across most the state. Grok, for example, informed me that:

GROK: Yes, wolves historically lived in the western areas of California. Gray wolves (Canis lupus) were once widespread across the state, including the western regions, such as the Sierra Nevada, coastal ranges, and Central Valley. Historical records, including accounts from early European settlers and Native American tribes, indicate their presence throughout California before the 20th century. However, due to habitat loss, hunting, and extermination campaigns, wolves were largely eradicated from California by the 1920s.

The best potential wolf habitat in California is probably located in the larger and more remote parts of the state that currently support elk (wapiti, or Cervus canadensis; see the map posted below, which probably exaggerates the current range.) But although elk are now widely distributed in California, their numbers remain small. According to current estimates, California has some 12,700 elk, whereas Idaho has around 120,000 and Montana up to 175,000. Due in part to the paucity of elk and other potential prey species larger than the black-tailed deer, California’s wolves have been extensively preying on domestic livestock. As can be seen in the “depredation report” posted below, such kills are occurring roughly every other day. It is thus hardly surprising that California ranchers are worried about the state’s expanding wolf packs.

Elk (Wapiti; Cervus canadiensis) Range in California map

Wolf Depredation Report California May 2024

The map entitled “U.S. Gray Wolf Distribution and Habitat” that is posted above depicts the central Sierra Nevada as one of the state’s largest areas of wolf habitat. This extensive and heavily forested area does not, however, have any elk. Its thick seasonal snowpack would be a challenge for both elk and wolves, requiring extensive areas of winter habitat in the more densely populated western foothills, presenting another challenge. I doubt that it is coincidental that California’s existing wolf packs are concentrated in the drier and more sparsely populated lands found to the east of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades, which I have illustrated on the final map posted below.

Gray Wolf Range in California and Precipitation map

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The Controversial Expansion of Gray Wolves in the United States

As discussed in the previous post, the gray wolf has made a remarkable but controversial recovery in Europe. The same is true in the United States. In the mid twentieth century, wolves were found only in Alaska, far northeastern Minnesota, and the western half of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. A few may have lived in northern Wisconsin, but the state’s Department of Natural Resources claimed that the species had been locally extirpated by 1960. The western U.S. was essentially without wolves. The map posted below shows the range of the gray wolf terminating precisely along the U.S.-Canada border in western North America in the 1960s. Using a political border to delimit the range of a species is usually a lazy and misleading expedient, but it is probably appropriate here. At the time, wolves living in mountainous areas of southern British Columbia and Alberta occasionally crossed the border, but breading packs had been systematically eliminated from the western United States.

Range of the Gray Wolf in the U.S. Circa 1965

Wolves began to return to the western U.S. in the 1980s. In 1979, a lone female was encountered near Glacier National Park, and two years later she evidently mated with a migrant male. The so-called Magic Pack that they formed quickly expanded, forming the nucleus for wolf repopulation in northwestern Montana. In the 1990s, wolves were intentionally reintroduced into Yellowstone National Park, located mostly in northwestern Wyoming. Enjoying federal protection as an endangered species in all U.S. states but Alaska and Minnesota, wolves continued to expand their range and numbers over the next several decades, mostly through natural population increase and dispersion. Captive breeding programs for the smaller and almost extinct Mexican subspecies allowed its reintroduction into the mountainous area along the Arizona-New Mexico border.

Wolf numbers and ranges in the United States are carefully tracked by wildlife managers, allowing the creation of reasonably accurate distribution maps. Synthesizing spatial information from all the maps I could find and using numerical data from a Wildlife Informer article, I have mapped the distribution of wolves in the U.S. as of 2024 (see below). As can be seen, Alaska and the Lake Superior region in the upper Midwest still support the largest populations. In the western “Lower 48,” Montana and Idaho stand out.

Gray Wolf Distribution and Population in the U.S. 2024

The wolf resurgence is as controversial in the United States as it is in Europe. In 2020, Colorado voters opted to reintroduce the species by a razor-thin margin; since then, 25 wolves have been released in the state. But in the following year, federal protection was removed, letting some states manage their own wolf populations and allow hunting and trapping.

Currently, the governments of Montana and Idaho are seeking to substantially reduce their number of wolves. Over the past few years, some 200 to 300 wolves have been annually hunted or trapped in Montana, with the total state population, around 1,100, remaining roughly stable. Montana’s Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks is now proposing an increased cull, hoping to reduce the population to around 450. Similarly, Idaho’s Gray Wolf Management Plan calls for a reduction from around 1,200 to roughly 500, with a minimum of 350. Environmental activists opposing the Idaho plan argue that the actual numbers may be significantly less than current estimates. Ranchers point to the more than 200 annual livestock predation deaths in contending that the wolf population is too large, regardless of precise numbers. In response to such concerns, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game recently adopted a new statistically and genetically sophisticated method of population estimation called “Approximate Bayesian Computation,” which came up with a figure of 1,150.

Such wolf-reduction plans appall most environmentalists, who believe that wolves are important for ecosystem integrity. As argued in a recent article from the Center for Biological Diversity:

Most insidiously, some Republicans are trying to roll back the protection wolves do have, which would turn western states into bloodbaths like those in the northern Rockies, where wolves aren’t federally protected. But the current threats to legal protections for wolves are more than just an attack on a beloved wild animal. They have broader, more devastating implications for western lands. Wolves are an essential part of healthy, functioning wild landscapes. Like other keystone species, such as bears, beavers, bison and birds, wolves contribute to ecosystem restorations and help build a wilder landscape.

The argument that wolves help maintain ecosystem health by limiting the grazing and browsing activities of large herbivores, especially along watercourse, is well substantiated. The idea that “birds” are a “keystone species,” on the other hand, is both ecologically and taxonomically illiterate (although the alliteration is nice).

The wolf-reduction plans of Montana and Idaho are characteristic of the more conservative attitudes found in these Republican-voting, or “red,” states. As a left-leaning (if purple-trending) state, Minnesota is taking a different path. “Objective 1B” of its current management plan is to “maintain a population comparable to recent estimates (2,300-3,000, well above the federal recovery goals) and distributed across the majority of current wolf range.” Intriguingly, although wolf numbers in Minnesota have declined slightly since 2004, the species’ range in the state has continued to expand, as demonstrated by the figure posted below.

Gray Wolf Range and Population in Minnesota Map

Although the current wolf policies of Montana and Idaho seem harsh when compared to that of Minnesota, they seem positively pro-wolf when compared to that of Sweden, a country with a strong “green” reputation. As noted in the previous post, Sweden intends to reduce its wolf population from roughly 400 to only 170, whereas Idaho has set a far more robust target population of 500. Sweden, moreover, is almost twice as large an Idaho (173,860 sq mi vs. 83,571 sq mi), and a larger percentage of its land is potential wolf habitat.

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Mapping the Return of Wolves in Europe

As I was preparing to resume posting on GeoCurrents after a short hiatus, I decided to examine recent posts on the fascinating but unfortunately named Reddit site called “MapPorn.” As always, I was struck by many contributions, but what really caught my eye was a five-map sequence on the decline and resurgence of the grey wolf in Italy. I have simplified this map sequence and posted it below.

Maps of the Decline & Resurgence of Wolves in Italy

The story that these three maps tell is familiar but rarely illustrated so clearly. In most developed countries, the ranges of most large mammals retreated drastically in the early 1900s before readvancing a century later. As can be seen, wolves were widely distributed in Italy in 1900 but had been virtually extirpated in 1973; by 2020, however, they occupied a larger area than they had 120 years earlier. Wolves have not, however, returned to Sicily, which would entail crossing the perilous Strait of Messina. The core wolf territory in all three periods was the Apennine Mountains of the central peninsula. Intriguingly, the Alps appear to have been essentially without wolves in 1900 and still have relatively few packs. (I have no way to assess the accuracy of these maps, but I do suspect that ranges are somewhat exaggerated on both the 1900 and 2020 maps; the fact that all coastal regions are depicted as wolf-free in 2020 but not in 1900 strikes me as odd.)

A similar story of wolf decline followed by resurgence can be told for other parts of Europe, as indicated by the map posted below. As can be seen, wolves had been eliminated from much of northwestern Europe by 1800. Most sources claim that England’s last wolf was killed around 1500, and that by the late 1600s the species was extinct in Scotland as well. By the mid 20th century, wolves had been wiped out almost everywhere in Western Europe, with remnant populations found only in northwestern Iberia in central Italy. Yet as this map also shows, viable wolf populations remained at the time in large areas of eastern, central, and southeastern Europe, mostly in what was then the communist zone, including East Germany. This was less a matter of preservation in the east than of less effective eradication efforts.

Map of the Changing Distribution of Gray Wolves in Europe

Wolf populations began to rebound and expand in Western Europe with the growth of environmentalism in the late 20th century. As the next map shows, secure wolf populations are now found in southeastern France, across most of the Nordic countries, and in northern Germany. In southern Europe, wolves are found mostly in mountainous areas (but note the species’ general absence in the Pyrenees). In northern Europe, in contrast, wolves appear to be more widespread in lowland areas. Although wolves were not seen in the Netherlands – the lowest of the Low Countries – until 2015, the country had an estimated 63 individuals in September 2023, with another 28 in neighboring Belgium. I find it remarkable that the Netherlands now supports wild wolf packs, considering its high population density, intensive agriculture, and subdued topography.

Map of Wolf Population in Europe 2017-2023

The return of the wolf has generated intense controversies in Europe, as it has in the United States (as we shall see in a later post). Farmers are furious at the depredation of their livestock herds, and some rural people worry that wolves may become a danger to humans if they grow too numerous. In 2023, the government of Sweden decided to address such concerns by reducing the number of wolves in the country from more than 400 to a target population of some 170. Not surprisingly, this move has encountered widespread opposition from environmental groups, which argue that the reduction of the wolf population threatens ecosystem integrity. Animal-rights activists also oppose wolf hunting, favoring non-lethal methods of protecting livestock. Such controversies are increasingly encountered across much of Europe. In early 2025, the Berne Convention, which guides Wildlife Conservation in Europe, downgraded the status of wolves from “strictly protected” to “protected.”

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The Forests of Northern Somalia?

Somalia (including Somaliland) is widely known as an arid and drought-plagued land. Climate maps depict most of the country as having a hot and dry desert climate (“BWh” in the Köppen classification system). Much of southern Somalia, as well as a portion of the far northwest (southwestern Somaliland), in contrast, receives enough precipitation to be classified as having a hot and semi-arid steppe climate (“BSh” in the Köppen classification system). Only a small area in the far southeast is mapped as having a tropical wet-and-dry savannah climate (“Aw” in the Köppen classification system).

Climate Map of Somalia

Precipitation maps of Somalia are difficult to find. Those showing annual rainfall across Africa generally depict northern Somalia (Puntland and eastern Somaliland) as receiving less than 200 millimeters  (7.8 inches) of annual precipitation. A rainfall map of Somalia’s political divisions shows similar but more finely differentiated totals. In this map, the Erigavo region (Ceerigaabo in Somali), currently contested between Somaliland and SSC-Khaatuno (see the two previous GeoCurrents posts), is depicted as receiving 191 millimeters (7.5 inches) per year.

Precipitation Map of Somalia

Such mapping is imprecise, as it fails to show the much higher levels of precipitation found in areas of high elevation. By the same token, climate maps of the same region do not show the much lower temperatures found in the same elevated areas. As the topography and elevation map posted below shows, sizable areas of far northern Somalia are mountainous. Importantly, these relatively wet highlands provide water for a much wider area.

Somalia topography Cal Madow Mountains map

Consider, for example, the contested city of Erivago, situated just to the south of the Cal Madow range, situated at an elevation of 2,000 meters (6,560 feet). As the Wikipedia climate table posted below shows, Erivago has a mild and moderately semi-arid climate, receiving on average 435 millimeters (17.1 inches) of annual rainfall, more than twice the amount shown on the precipitation map for the larger Erivago region. The city has an odd seasonal precipitation pattern, with one rainfall peak in May and June and another in September. As the table indicates, hot weather is rare in Erivago, and humidity levels are generally moderate. Such conditions generate productive pasturelands, although drought vulnerability in pronounced.

Wikipedia Climate Table Erivago, Somalia

North of Erivago, the Cal Madow mountains receive significantly higher levels of precipitation. According to the Wikipedia article on the range, annual totals run as high as 750–850 mm (30–33 in). With frequent fog in the dry season (November-February), as well as relatively low temperatures, the Cal Madow range supports woodlands and even forests in the more favorable locales. These wooded areas are part of the Somali Montane Xeric Woodland ecosystem, which is found in highlands areas scattered across northern Somalia. The flora of these woodlands has affinities with those of both the Mediterranean region and southern Arabia. Particularly valuable are two plants in the latter category, frankincense (Boswellia sacra) and myrrh (Commiphora myrrha). As noted in a NASA Earth Observatory article on the forests of Cal Madow, “The city of Ceerigaabo [Erivago] serves as a key hub for gathering, sorting, and storing frankincense and myrrh in Somalia, which is one of the world’s leading exporters of the prized resins.”

Woodlands in Northern Somalia

Some of Somalia’s Montane Xeric Woodlands have been degraded by over-cutting and heavy browsing by domestic stock. But as the World Wildlife Organization notes, rugged topography offers some protection:

[Many of Somalia’s Montane Xeric Woodland] habitats are fairly intact due to the low human population and the inaccessibility of the escarpment and plateau areas, but populations of larger mammals have been greatly reduced by hunting. However, the difficult topography and long-running political problems mean that much of the region is unexplored biologically (WWF and IUCN 1994).

Erigavo and Cal Madow Somalia Satellite Image

As these “unexplored biologically” areas are essentially inaccessible to outsiders due to their politically chaotic conditions as well as their challenging topography, information about them is sparse. Such a condition is not unusual. Although we are often told that globalization and technological developments have made the entire Earth both knowable and known, the truth is far different. Although one can use Google Earth to peer in at almost any place, many mysteries abound. An intriguing YouTube genre documents such areas; see, for example, “The Most Impossible to Reach Places on Google Earth” and “Even MORE Impossible to Reach Places on Google Earth.”

The Forests of Northern Somalia? Read More »

Middle Path Environmentalism

Dear Readers,

I have posted two essays on environmental philosophy and politics under the “Featured Essays” drop-down menu located above and to the right of this post. They were initially designed to be the introduction and first chapter of a book that would be called Middle Path Environmentalism: Taking Climate Change and Other Environmental Problems Seriously without Crushing the Working Class and Undermining Rural Life. But after circulating these essays among a group of friends and colleagues and receiving almost no encouragement [1], I decided to put the project on indefinite hold. Written from a perspective best deemed radical centrism [2], Middle Path Environmentalism has proved distasteful for readers with strongly partisan views. In the academic environment that I inhabit, almost everyone I know is an ardent Democrat – and those who aren’t are radical leftists. From their perspectives, my centrist arguments are seen as potentially providing fodder for a Republican opposition that they consider extremely dangerous.

Ironically, most of the positions found in these essays would have been considered solidly left-liberal not long ago. But liberalism, as formally defined [3], was roundly rejected by the Marxian New Left in the late 1960s. Their views gradually spread across the political left, accelerating after the 2016 election. Today, such cornerstones of liberalism as individual rights and freedom of speech are viewed with suspicion by most leftists. But what constitutes the “political left” has also come into to question. The standard definition [4] focuses on the left’s desire to reduce economic inequality and social hierarchy by upholding the interest of the working and middle classes – positions that I strongly endorse. Today, however, identity politics override class politics over most of the self-proclaimed left. As a result, working-class support for the Democratic Party is plummeting, partially replaced by support from affluent, suburban professionals who formerly favored Republican candidates. To be sure, the Democrats still count many leftists and even radical leftists among their ranks, but the party’s center of gravity is now solidly establishmentarian. Both main parties now represent cross-class alliances – but in the end both primarily uphold elite interests.

In my own controversial view, national healing requires a middle path between establishmentarianism and populism, as well as between modernism and traditionalism. Such a path, I believe, must be strongly democratic, which by its very nature inclines to the political center while steadfastly opposing oligarchy. Although unpopular in my own professional circles, this stance does have growing support among the electorate at large. But in our hyper-polarized political environment, I have reluctantly concluded that championing it is a futile effort. As a result, I have decided to abandon the “Middle Path Environmentalism” project, at least for the time being.

Dropping this project will allow me to focus on the much more rewarding and enjoyable endeavor of non-political educational outreach. I am currently planning a series of geography and history lecture courses, which will be freely available on this website and on YouTube. Information on these prospective courses will be posted on this website soon.

  1. The only person who encouraged me to continue working on this project is Ryder Wooten, a well-informed Mendocino-county cannabis grower noted for his devotion to carbon-neutral, regenerative farming (see this High Times article). A number of my current political positions have been derived through extended conversations with Wooten.

  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_centrism
  2. According to Wikipedia’s serviceable definition, “Liberalism is a political and moral philosophy based on the rights of the individual, liberty, consent of the governed, political equality, right to private property, and equality before the law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-wing_politics

Middle Path Environmentalism Read More »

Air-Conditioning Needs and Cartographic Failure at the Washington Post

The Washington Post recently ran an article entitled “Addicted to Cool: How the Dream of Air Conditioning Turned into the Dark Future of Climate Change,” which features three maps of “Summer Days Requiring AC” in the U.S. at different periods of time (1981-200, 2001-2002, and 2060). As expected, the region needing air conditioning is projected to expand. Determining how many days actually “require” air conditioning is, however, an impossible task, as different people vary significantly in their cooling desires and demands, while housing design and shade considerations make big differences as well. Understandably bypassing such complexities, the newspaper used the heat index, a measurement of temperature and humidity, as a proxy. Unsurprisingly, their maps show that a large area of the country already needs summer air conditioning, and that in the decades to come the need for cooling will geographically expand.

The maps included in the article, however, are not impressive, to put it mildly. Their problems are particularly severe regarding California. As can be seen on the map detail of Southern California posted below, the Post’s mapping accurately shows the eastern deserts and the inland western regions as needing air conditioning on most if not all summer days. It also accurately depicts the highest elevation areas as rarely requiring it. But the same map also portrays the coastal zone as AC-dependent. This is not true. Downtown San Diego, for example, has an average July high temperature of 75 degrees Fahrenheit and an average July low of 66 (over the 1991-2020 period). Further north, in Rancho Palos Verdes, similar conditions prevail. According to Weather Spark, “The hottest month of the year in Rancho Palos Verdes is August, with an average high of 76°F and low of 64°F.” The same site also notes that “Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 51°F to 76°F and is rarely below 46°F or above 84°F.” This is climate that very rarely calls for cooling.

The map is equally inaccurate in its depiction of Northern California. As can be seen on the map detail posted below, it does capture the cool summers characteristic of the coastal regions in and around San Francisco and Monterey bays. It completely misses the fact, however, that other coastal regions also have mild summers. The average July high and low temperatures in Point Arena, Santa Cruz, and Carmel are, respectively 65 and 50 degrees F.; 74 and 54; and 70 and 53 (all based on the climatological data found in the Wikipedia articles on these towns). In Point Arena, one is more likely to want heating than air conditioning in June and July, yet the map indicates that cooling is needed on most summer days.

Other odd features mar the map. As can be seen, the city of San Francisco is mislocated in the bay and on its eastern shore.  The national map also features a faint white line that traces part of San Francisco Bay and would appear to indicate the actual coastline, at least in some areas.  Was one map imprecisely overlaid on another?

Although these problems are serious enough, it is the map of projected air-conditioning needs in the year 2060 that truly fails. This can be seen easily on the paired maps showing current and projected AC requirements in California. Here much of the currently cool Big Sur coastal zone is projected to have much reduced air-conditioning needs by 2060. This region of projected cooling is bizarrely shown as extending over the Santa Lucia Range into the southern Salinas Valley, an area that now experiences warm summers (King City has an average July high of 85 degrees F.). Similarly, the currently warm inland area north of Santa Barbara is shown as being expected to have much cooler summers in 2060 than it does today, while with the rest of Southern California is projected to warm.

One can only wonder whether the cartographers in question actually examined these maps before publication, or, if they did, whether they have much of an understanding of the geography of climate. It often seems that journalists use maps as mere ornaments or, alternatively, to have the appearance of spatial precision without the substance. The maps in this article do little more than make the trite point that “more of us will need air conditioning as the climate warms.” Readers deserve better, especially from a once-great paper that is owned by the third richest person in the world.

Air-Conditioning Needs and Cartographic Failure at the Washington Post Read More »

What Is the Black Sea? (Part 1)

The Wikipedia article on the Black Sea begins by asserting that “The Black Sea is a marginal mediterranean sea of the Atlantic Ocean lying between Europe and Asia…” This definition is not helpful, as it obscures more than it reveals.

Let us begin with the assertion that the Black Sea is a marginal sea. Wikipedia defines a “marginal sea” as follows: “A marginal sea is a division of an ocean, partially enclosed by islands, archipelagos, or peninsulas adjacent to or widely open to the open ocean at the surface, and/or bounded by submarine ridges on the sea floor.” The Black Sea, however, is not even remotely “widely open to the open ocean”: the distance from Istanbul, near the entrance to the Black Sea, to Gibraltar, near the opening to the “open ocean,” is 1,871 miles, or 3,011 kilometers. In the map posted below, I “erased” the Mediterranean Sea to illustrate the separation of the Black Sea from the ocean. Classifying the Black Sea as part of the Atlantic Ocean strains credulity. The very concept of “marginal sea,” moreover, is itself strained. As the second map below shows, many bodies of water that are officially classified as marginal seas are not “partially enclosed by islands, archipelagos, or peninsulas.” None of the officially delimited Antarctic seas have any real degree of surface enclosure. Nor are they divided from the open ocean by “submarine ridges on the sea floor.”

The definition of a “mediterranean sea” (note the lower-case “m”), unlike that of a “marginal sea,” is clearly formulated and technical. According to Wikipedia, “A mediterranean sea is, in oceanography, a mostly enclosed sea that has limited exchange of water with outer oceans and whose water circulation is dominated by salinity and temperature differences rather than by winds or tides.” The same article lists eight “mediterranean seas,” which I have mapped (see below). It also divides this kind of sea into two categories: “concentration basins,” which are saltier than the open ocean, and “dilution basins,” which are less salty (see the second map below). Note that the Mediterranean is itself split on this basis, with the Adriatic forming a dilution basin and the rest of its waters a concentration basin. As these two different forms of “mediterranean sea” are situated on opposite sides of the open ocean regarding salinity, it might be more accurate to label a dilution basis an “anti-mediterranean sea.”

One thing that is clear is about the Black Sea is that it is not part of the Mediterranean Sea. The Wikipedia cited above, however, implies that it is: “The Eurafrican Mediterranean Sea is also a concentration basin as a whole, but the Black Sea and the Adriatic Sea are dilution basins …”  Elsewhere in the article the Black Sea is classified as part of a plural entity dubbed the “Mediterranean Seas”: “The namesake Mediterranean Seas, including the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, …” Evidently, a certain degree of confusion clouds these categories.

In geo-historical terms, the Black Sea belongs in a category of its own, as will be explored in the next GeoCurrentspost.

What Is the Black Sea? (Part 1) Read More »

The East/West Divide in the Republic of Georgia

The Republic of Georgia exhibits a marked east/west division. This divide is especially notable in physical geography. As can be seen on the first map posted below, western Georgia is dominated but a sizable coastal lowland, with its rivers draining into the Black Sea, whereas eastern Georgia is more elevated and drains into the Caspian Sea. As is also evident on this map, the breakaway Russian client statelet of South Ossetia extends across much of north-central Georgia, partially separating the country’s two macro-regions. As the satellite-based map of Georgia reveals, a band of forested land also marks the divide between the two halves of the country. And as can be seen in the third map posted below shows, the area in which most people speak Georgian and related Kartvelian languages as their mother-tongue is almost bifurcated into eastern and western segments by a band of rough topography that is mostly occupied by non-Georgian-speaking peoples.

 

Eastern and western Georgia are also climatically differentiated. The west experiences heavy year-round precipitation, with its coastal areas approaching a humid subtropical climate. Eastern Georgia, in contrast, is subhumid, with parts of its eastern extremity verging on semi-arid status. In the east, rainfall is concentrated in the late spring and early summer, as can be seen in the precipitation table posted below.

The division between western and eastern Georgia is also found in the historical and cultural spheres. Through much of the ancient period, western Georgia was dominated by the Kingdom of Colchis, whereas eastern Georgia was dominated by the Kingdom of Iberia. In the 10th and 11th centuries, Georgia was united into a single kingdom that became a powerful empire in the 12th and early 13th centuries. In the post-medieval period, however, Georgia was split into several competing kingdoms, and in the sixteenth century the western half of the country came under the rule of the Ottoman Empire while the eastern half came under the rule of the Safavid (Persian) Empire. In the early 19th century, both halves of the country were annexed by the Russian Empire. Independence as a single state did not come until the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Western and eastern Georgia are also differentiated on cultural grounds.  Most notably, western Georgia is characterized by a deeper level of cultural diversity. As the map below shows, the northwest has its own distinctive languages, Mingrelian and Svan. Although these tongues are related to Georgian, they broke from the common ancestral language many centuries ago. Today, however, Mingrelian and Svan are declining and are considered endangered, as local people increasingly switch to Georgian. The breakaway statelet of Abkhazia in the far northwest is characterized by pronounced ethnolinguistic diversity, although its diversity was significantly reduced when most of the local Georgian population was expelled after the break-up of the Soviet Union. In the southwest, the Adjara region is noted for its distinctive dialect of Georgian and for the prevalence of Sunni Islam rather than Orthodox Christianity in most rural areas. Owning to such cultural distinctiveness, Adjara is officially classified as an autonomous region. (As will be explored in a later post, Shia Islam is dominant across much of south-central Georgia.)

Despite such differences between western and eastern Georgia, the country is characterized by a strong sense of national cohesion, with muted regional divisions. Georgia’s deeply rooted national identity will be explored in more detail in later posts. For the time being, I would only note that it may be of minor significance that the demographic core of western Georgia is offset to the east (in the Imereti region), while that of eastern Georgia is offset to the west (in the Tbilisi region). This pattern is clearly visible in the population cartogram posted below.

It might seem surprising that the core area of western Georgia is not located in the Black Sea coastal lowlands. The historical disease environment helps explain this pattern. Until recently, the humid and flat lands of far western Georgia had a high incidence of malaria, reducing its population and marginalized its political and economic position. Malaria was finally eliminated in the 1970s, but it returned after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was not fully extirpated until around 2010.

The East/West Divide in the Republic of Georgia Read More »

The (Temporary) Rebirth of California’s Once-Huge Tulare Lake?

The southern half of California’s vast San Joaquin Valley is almost never depicted as a desert nor is it officially classified as one. But it clearly is a desert by climatological criteria. Most of the San Joaquin Valley gets less than 10 inches of precipitation a year, with much of the southern valley receiving less than seven, and it has an extremely high rate of evaporation from late spring through early autumn. But with abundant water flowing from the adjacent Sierra Nevada range, the southern San Joaquin Valley is a verdant, intensely cultivated land. Before the late 1800s, it was the site of the third largest freshwater lake entirely within the United States (as measured by surface area). But when the rivers that formerly flowed into Tulare Lake were diverted into canals to irrigate crops, the huge lake disappeared. Today, the former lakebed is highly productive farmland with only a few small seasonal wetlands providing natural habitat.

As the paired maps posted below indicates, the extent of Tulare Lake varies greatly in different cartographic depictions. This is because the lake itself varied significantly in size on both a seasonal and multi-year basis. As Tulare Lake did not drain in most years, it would expand in winter and spring and then contract through summer and early fall. It would also grow to an especially large size in wet years and shrink dramatically in dry ones. In particularly wet years, the lake would rise high enough to drain to the sea through the San Joaquin River, thus flushing out any accumulated salt and ensuring that its water remained fresh.

A shallow and nutrient-rich lake, Tulare was extremely productive. The Yokuts people who lived around its shores were reputed to have had one of the highest levels of population density of any indigenous American ethnic group. For several decades after the gold rush, Tulare’s aquatic resources from were shipped in huge quantities to San Francisco. As the Wikipedia article on the lake notes:

Even well after California became a state, Tulare Lake and its extensive marshes supported an important fishery: In 1888, in one three-month period, 73,500 pounds of fish were shipped through Hanford to San Francisco. It was also the source of a regional favorite, western pod turtles, which were relished as terrapin soup in San Francisco and elsewhere.

Turtles in Tulare Lake were so abundant that they were even fed to hogs. Today the western pond turtle is classified as a vulnerable species, suffering from competition with invasive exotic turtle species and undermined by the loss of habitat.

Environmentalists occasionally dream about bringing back Tulare Lake, emphasizing the vital habitat that it once provided and contending that its revival would be a relatively easy way for California to store excess runoff. Such a scenario, however, is extremely unlikely. Not only is the former lakebed highly productive farmland, but it also contains the city of Corcoran, home to some 22,000 residents.

But regardless of human plans and desires, Tulare Lake will probably reappear this spring, if only for a short period, owing to the extremely heavy precipitation that has been experienced this winter in the southern Sierra. Tulare County has already seen levee-breaks and the flooding of several towns, and water is now beginning to accumulate in the old lakebed. Local flooding could easily persist as snowmelt begins in April or May. Noting such factors, a recent article by Dan Walters claims that “It’s almost certain that Tulare Lake will once again spring to life.” Walters concludes by arguing that, “the probability is generating some hopeful, if unrealistic, speculation that state and or federal governments could buy up the lakebeds fields and bring back to Tulare lake permanently.”

This season’s reborn Tulare Lake will probably evaporate over the course of the summer, which will almost certainly be hot and bone dry – as is always is in the San Joaquin Valley. But if California enters a multiyear wet cycle, which is possible although not probable, winter and spring drainage could become a big problem for the farms and towns of the Tulare Basin. The city of Corcoran well known for its continual subsidence, dropping in elevation by about two feet a year due to the overuse of groundwater. Subsidence has already created major headaches for Corcoran. As noted in The Science Times,

The town levee had to be reconstructed for $10 million after the casings of drinking-water wells were crushed, flood areas changed, and the town levee had to be rebuilt. The situation has increased homeowners’ property tax bills by around $200 a year for three years.

Another powerful storm is slated to slam into California on Tuesday, March 21. Like most of this year’s major storms, it will be most pronounced in central and southern California, largely missing the normally much-wetter northern third of the state. More than 48 inches of additional snow is expected in the southern Sierra, which drains into the Tulare Basin. Thus far this winter, the southern Sierra has received an astounding 268 percent of average annual snowfall.

As can be seen on the map posted above, the northern and central parts of the Sierra have also received much higher-than-average amounts of snow this winter, but not to the same extent as the south. This pattern is highly unusual and was not expected. Until recently, the eastern Pacific was under La Niña conditions, which usually means a drier than average wet season, especially in Southern California. By winter 2024, El Niño conditions may assert themselves, which usually means a wetter than average winter for southern and central California. If so, Tulare Lake might fill up yet again.

The (Temporary) Rebirth of California’s Once-Huge Tulare Lake? Read More »

Mapping the Extraordinary Cost of Homes in California

California Median Home Price MapAs promised in late 2015, GeoCurrents be will continuing its policy of giving away easily customizable base maps made with simple presentation software (Keynote and PowerPoint). Today’s base map, which depicts the counties of California, can be downloaded at the links at the bottom of the page. (As before, several maps are included in each set, each one with slightly different feature.)

Whenever I finish such a base map, I feel compelled to use it for some sort of thematic illustration. In the case of California, my first inclination was to map a topic of local obsession: the cost of homes. Housing prices in parts of California have reached a level so astronomical as to provoke widespread despair (coupled, however, with a certain degree of concealed glee among the beneficiaries). The geography of housing costs can be easily grasped by juxtaposing a map of median home prices in USA Home Price MapCalifornia with a similar map showing all of the United States. As can be seen on the first map, extraordinary expense is primarily a feature of the San Francisco Bay Area, particularly the string of counties that runs from Marin in the north to Santa Clara (“Silicon Valley”) in the south. Elsewhere in the state, homes are relatively inexpensive. “Relatively,” however, is the key word. The median list price in Sacramento County ($270,000) may seem like a bargain compared to that of San Mateo County ($974,000), but in national terms it is still high. As can be seen in the Trulia real-estate map of the United States, relatively few counties in the entire Midwest fall into the same category of expense as Sacramento County.

California Average Home Price MapSeveral people to whom I showed the map of median home prices found it surprising, as they expected to see higher prices in such counties as Monterey and Santa Barbara, which are widely known for their up-scale communities. Both counties, however, also contain extensive agricultural areas characterized by moderate to low levels of income. The exclusivity of the upper end of the market in Monterey and Santa Barbara counties is nicely captured by the map of average list prices for homes. Here Santa Barbara ranks in the third position, with a figure just below 1.5 million dollars.

 

 

California Median Income MapThe price of homes in California correlates relatively well with income levels, but with some interesting differences and discrepancies. The most significant is the fact that median household income varies by less than a factor of three, whereas the median price of homes varies by a factor of almost 10. The distinction between California’s two main metropolitan centers is also notable. Housing is relatively affordable, when considered with regard to median household income, in such southern California counties as Orange and Ventura than it is in such Bay Area counties as San Francisco and Alameda. East/west differences also come into play. Placer and El Dorado counties in the east are particularly affordable, characterized by high incomes but relatively modest home prices. Both of these counties are largely rural, but they also include some of Sacramento’s more up-scale suburbs and share as well the amenity-rich Lake Tahoe basin. Mendocino County on the north coast exhibits the opposite pattern, with home prices in the same range as Placer and El Dorado but with a much lower median household income. But Mendocino’s official income figures are unduly low, as they do not factor in the county’s large but mostly underground cannabis economy.

California Unemployment rate mapCalifornia’s unemployment map is also worth examining in the light of the state’s housing crisis. Here we see low unemployment figures for the Bay Area, particularly San Mateo and Marin counties, located just south and north of San Francisco respectively. But many jobs here are difficult to fill owing to the severe shortage of housing and the astronomical levels of rent. The off-the-chart 29.9 percent unemployment figure for rural, agricultural Colusa County is difficult to explain, if indeed it is accurate. Many other farming counties in California also have high unemployment figures, but not nearly to this extent. Only Imperial County in the far southeast comes close.

The cost of homes and levels of rent found in the San Francisco Bay Area provoke a tremendous amount of discussion but generate little in the way of concrete action. Stanford Professor David Palumbo-Liu emphasizes the class dimension of the issue in a recent article in Salon:

The most extreme case of this vast difference in the ability to afford housing may be that of 1950 Cowper Street in Palo Alto, which recently was bought by Google executive Ruth Porat for the sum of $30 million. That’s right, $30 million. For a three-bedroom house of 5,000 square feet. Contrast this with the massive displacement of ordinary working-class people and the diminishing if not evaporated chances of owning a home for what used to be called “the middle-class family.”

Writing from a leftist perspective, Palumbo-Liu would seek to address the crisis by instituting rent control and other forms of tenant protection. Many other authors, in contrast, emphasize instead the lack of new construction, which in turn stems largely from environmental and quality-of-life opposition to development. As Gabriel Metcalf, writing in CityLab (from The Atlantic), argues in regard to the city/county of San Francisco:

Regardless of these realities, most San Francisco progressives chose to stick with their familiar stance of opposing new development, positioning themselves as defenders of the city’s physical character. Instead of forming a pro-growth coalition with business and labor, most of the San Francisco Left made an enduring alliance with home-owning NIMBYs. It became one of the peculiar features of San Francisco that exclusionary housing politics got labeled “progressive.” … Over the years, these anti-development sentiments were translated into restrictive zoning, the most cumbersome planning and building approval process in the country, and all kinds of laws and rules that make it uniquely difficult, time-consuming, and expensive to add housing in San Francisco.

(See also this article by Conor Friedersdor for a similar perspective.)

 

Bay Area Housing Production MapAlthough Metcalf and Friedersdor focus their discussions on San Francisco, their observations hold just as well—if not better—for the Bay Area’s other cities and towns. Here again we can turn to cartography for clear evidence, thanks to Scott Wiener and his article “Want to Know Why the Bay Area Has a Housing Crisis? Read This Map” (the map in question is from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, and is posted here to the left). As can be seen, San Francisco is doing much better in reaching its modest housing-construction goals than most other cities in the region. Oakland, which has experienced skyrocketing rents over the past year, is doing much worse, whereas tony San Rafael in ultra-hip Marin County is apparently adding no new housing whatsoever.

 

Most young people growing up in Silicon Valley and San Francisco will be forced to leave their communities on reaching adulthood, as they will simply not be able to afford local housing. Could this impending “expulsion from home” contribute to the well-known “stress epidemic” that is plaguing Silicon Valley teens? Over the past few years, the small city of Palo Alto—arguably the heart of the Valley—has been in anguish over two spates of suicides at Henry M. Gunn High School. A recent article in The Atlantic, “The Silicon Valley Suicides: Why are so many kids with bright prospects killing themselves,” has riveted—and angered—much of the community. Most analyses of the problem focus on the pressure felt by Gunn students to excel at academics and everything else that they take on—and to take on a lot. Could some of this pressure stem from a simple desire to remain in their home cities, something that demands a high salary at a young age? My daughter, an 11th grader at Henry M. Gunn, gives this idea some credence.

California Customizable Maps (Keynote, older version)

California Customizable Maps (PowerPoint)

 

 

Mapping the Extraordinary Cost of Homes in California Read More »